AI and broader structural trends are moving work between occupations faster than most career paths were designed for. In its September 2026 report Workforce in Motion, the McKinsey Global Institute estimates that roughly 11 million US workers in declining occupations may need to move into new jobs, and that only about one in seven has a direct path to get there. For employers, the takeaway is practical: manage talent by skills, not job titles, and build internal pathways before you need them.
How big is the shift McKinsey describes?
McKinsey's base estimate is that automation could reduce US labor demand by the equivalent of roughly 36 million jobs over the next decade, while growth in the AI value chain and the broader economy could create demand for more than 40 million jobs. The report concludes that the United States is likely to have more jobs available in 2035 than today, but with fewer workers because the population is aging.
The harder problem is movement. Roughly 11 million workers, about 7 percent of current employees, might need to shift between occupations, with a range of 6 million to 16 million depending on how fast automation is adopted. The jobs on each side of that move look different:
- Roughly 60 percent of growing employment could be in the top two wage quintiles, concentrated in healthcare, construction, and management occupations.
- More than 70 percent of declining employment could be in the bottom two wage quintiles, mainly office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics.
In other words, the growing jobs could pay more on average, but they also ask for more skills.
What are the three career pathways in the report?
McKinsey describes a pathway as a practical route between occupations, shaped by four conditions: demand in the destination job, how close the skills are, whether pay is preserved, and how long any required credential takes to earn.
| Pathway | What it looks like | Share of transitioning workers |
|---|---|---|
| Direct | High skill match, no wage loss, or fast credential timing | About one in seven |
| Winding | Moderate skill match, some wage loss, or moderate credential timing | About four in ten |
| Unpaved | Low skill match, high wage loss, or long credential timing | Almost half |
Barriers can twist or block an otherwise viable path. The largest one is credentials: roughly 85 percent of growing jobs require a credential or certification.
Why does this matter even for employees who keep their jobs?
The report is not only about people changing occupations. McKinsey estimates that more than 70 percent of workers could require some level of reinvention, because new tasks may take up more than 15 percent of their time. Most occupations will change from the inside whether their headcount grows, shrinks, or stays flat.
That makes skill building part of the everyday employee experience, not a one-off program for people at risk of displacement.
Which skills does the report say matter most?
McKinsey groups skills into three types:
- Essential skills, required in many occupations, widen the range of jobs within reach. Examples include problem solving, leadership, interpersonal communication, people and process management, and detail orientation. More than 75 percent of occupations demand them.
- Enabling skills transfer across occupations and are concentrated in higher-paying roles, with an average wage above $83,000. Examples include innovation, influencing others, decision making, collaboration, and critical thinking.
- Empowering skills help people keep adapting as technology and work change: AI fluency, willingness to learn, resilience, adaptability, and curiosity.
Demand for empowering skills is already surging. Since 2022, demand for AI fluency has increased 11 times, demand for adaptability fivefold, and demand for resilience, curiosity, and willingness to learn threefold.
What should employers do now?
The report's implications for companies point in one direction: shift workforce management from job titles toward skills. In practice:
- Map the skills your people already have, then sort roles into those that can move quickly into growing work, those that need targeted upskilling, those that need a longer transition, and roles you cannot fill internally.
- Hire on skills with structure: consistent interview criteria, practical assessments, and clear definitions of the skills a role requires.
- Build internal mobility into workforce planning and culture, so people can see where they could move next.
- Communicate transparently, offer structured learning, and involve employees in redesigning how their work changes alongside AI.
- Measure redeployment, internal fill rates, and employee outcomes alongside productivity, not just cost savings.
Size changes the toolkit. McKinsey notes that large enterprises may be better positioned to build talent marketplaces and invest in skill development, while smaller companies may rely more on skills-based hiring and external partnerships.
FAQ
Does the report predict mass unemployment from AI?
No. McKinsey's base case is that the United States is likely to have more jobs available in 2035 than today. The challenge it describes is the move from declining to growing occupations, which may require the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in US history.
What is the single biggest barrier for workers changing occupations?
Credentials. Roughly 85 percent of growing jobs require a credential or certification, which can turn an otherwise viable move into a long or blocked path.
Is this only a US issue?
The data in this report covers the United States. Employers in Canada and other markets face similar technology shifts, but the specific figures should not be applied outside the US.
Where should a small or mid-sized employer start?
Start with a skills inventory for a few critical roles, then move to structured, skills-based hiring and one internal pathway you can actually staff. The report notes that smaller companies often lean on skills-based hiring and external partnerships rather than large internal talent marketplaces.
AI changes jobs from the inside long before it changes headcount. If you want to map your team's skills and design internal career pathways that keep good people growing with you, our coaching team can help you build that plan. Book a free consultation
This article is for general information and is not a substitute for legal or professional consulting advice. Figures are taken from the McKinsey Global Institute report below and describe the United States. Captured 2026-09-29.
Sources:
- McKinsey Global Institute, "Workforce in motion: Skills and pathways to future jobs in the United States", September 29, 2026, captured 2026-09-29